20% according to InTrade, a self-styled “Prediction Market” where individuals can place bets on whether or not certain events will happen. Some of their Hot Markets include:

  • 63% Chance that Barack Obama will be re-elected
  • 29% Chance that Mitt Romney will be Republican Presidential Nominee
  • 39% Change that Sarah Palin will announce a run for the presidency before 2012
  • 31% Chance that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will no longer be President of Iran in 2012
  • 7.9% Chance that NASA will discover aliens in 2011
  • 0.8% Chance that Joe Biden will be elected President in 2012

Source: InTrade

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